Ecological niche modeling of the Leopardus tigrinus complex sheds light on its elusive evolutionary history

The evolutionary history and taxonomy of the Leopardus tigrinus species complex have been studied based on several approaches, mostly employing genetic and morphological data, leading to distinct classification schemes. We approached this problem from an ecological perspective, with 2 main goals: (i) to evaluate ecological niche differences among regional L. tigrinus populations to determine the extent of ecological divergence among them; and (ii) to identify environmental barriers to historical dispersal that could have driven differentiation among the proposed groups. We modeled the ecological niche of all taxonomic/geographic groups proposed so far to comprise the L. tigrinus complex using the Maximum Entropy algorithm, and evaluated geographic and ecological niche differences among them. Furthermore, we investigated possible environmental barriers to historical dispersal that could have driven differentiation among regional groups. We evaluated 4 hypothetical barriers across 3 time periods to assess their potential historical effect. We found high ecological divergence between northeastern tigrina populations and the northern Andean and Central American tigrinas. Other groups within the L. tigrinus complex are less divergent. In addition, the Guiana Shield tigrina, where the type locality of the species is located, seems to be ecologically similar to populations from northeastern Brazil while also showing some overlap with Andean populations. The Panama center, the Llanos of Colombia and Venezuela, and the Amazon region were identified as historical barriers for tigrina dispersal across all time periods. The inferred historical barriers and ecological divergence observed in this study contribute to the inference of evolutionary differentiation among geographic groups comprising the L. tigrinus complex, revealing areas of consistently low habitat suitability that have likely contributed to divergence among regional populations.