Moving into danger? Embedding hazard modelling in a participatory workshop to support risk-sensitive urban development in Quito, Ecuador

Urban development increasingly takes the form of expansion at the edge of cities, often resulting in development of locations with greater exposure to natural hazards, as exemplified in Quito, which has experienced one hazard event per 0.8 km² of recent expansion. Predictive models of hazard impacts are thus important tools in planning, but their use can be limited by institutional technical capacity and data needs. In this paper, we present a trial approach of “just good enough” hazard modelling, using simplified but typical initial conditions and bold but reasonable parameterizations, to allow adequately realistic simulation of hazard events. This trial was run in a two-day participatory workshop with urban development departments of Quito municipality. Rapid participatory modelling proved effective in introducing hazard modelling to those without previous experience, fostering important discussion around hazard impacts and knowledge gaps, and opening broader planning dialogues across stakeholders, which is a critical first step in decision support and policy development.