Techno-Economic Analysis of Least-Cost Technology Solutions for Expanding Electricity Access in Ecuador

Alexandra Falcón-Mendoza; José Herrera-Perez; Jorge Hernández-Ambato; Emilia Ramos-Hidalgo; Victor Herrera-Perez

doi:10.1007/978-3-032-16851-1_23

Techno-Economic Analysis of Least-Cost Technology Solutions for Expanding Electricity Access in Ecuador

Alexandra Falcón-Mendoza
, José Herrera-Perez
, Jorge Hernández-Ambato
, Emilia Ramos-Hidalgo
, Victor Herrera-Perez^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Montebello Academy
Independent Researcher
Escuela Superior Politécnica de Chimborazo
Universidad San Francisco de Quito

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

Achieving universal access to electricity by 2030 remains a critical challenge in Ecuador, especially in remote and ecologically sensitive areas such as the Galápagos Islands and the Amazon region. This study applies the Open Source Spatial Electrification Toolkit (OnSSET) to develop geospatial least-cost electrification scenarios for Ecuador under 2030 and 2050 timeframes. By integrating national and global open-access datasets, the analysis simulates grid expansion, off-grid, and photovoltaic hybrid mini-grid (MG-PV) solutions to reach underserved populations. Results show that by 2030, grid densification remains the dominant strategy, accounting for over 85% of new connections and requiring an investment of approximately USD 5.6 billion. However, decentralized hybrid systems, particularly MG-PV are essential for cost-effective electrification of isolated communities, serving more than 390,000 people. The 2050 scenario projects continued diversification, requiring over USD 65 billion in cumulative investments. This study demonstrates how open geospatial data and tools such as OnSSET can support evidence-based policymaking aligned with SDG 7 and Ecuador’s national decarbonization agenda.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Advanced Research in Technologies, Information, Innovation and Sustainability - ARTIIS 2025, International Workshops, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia, October 21–23, 2025, Revised Selected Papers
Editors	Teresa Guarda, Filipe Portela, Maria Fernanda Augusto
Publisher	Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Pages	324-339
Number of pages	16
ISBN (Print)	9783032168504
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-16851-1_23
State	Published - 2026
Event	Workshops of the International Conference on Advanced Research in Technologies, Information, Innovation and Sustainability, ARTIIS 2025 - Cartagena de Indias, Colombia Duration: 21 Oct 2025 → 23 Oct 2025

Publication series

Name	Communications in Computer and Information Science
Volume	2792 CCIS
ISSN (Print)	1865-0929
ISSN (Electronic)	1865-0937

Conference

Conference	Workshops of the International Conference on Advanced Research in Technologies, Information, Innovation and Sustainability, ARTIIS 2025
Country/Territory	Colombia
City	Cartagena de Indias
Period	21/10/25 → 23/10/25

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy

Keywords

Electricity access
Geospatial data
Grid expansion in Ecuador
Least-cost technology
OnSSET

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-032-16851-1_23

Cite this

Falcón-Mendoza, A., Herrera-Perez, J., Hernández-Ambato, J., Ramos-Hidalgo, E., & Herrera-Perez, V. (2026). Techno-Economic Analysis of Least-Cost Technology Solutions for Expanding Electricity Access in Ecuador. In T. Guarda, F. Portela, & M. F. Augusto (Eds.), Advanced Research in Technologies, Information, Innovation and Sustainability - ARTIIS 2025, International Workshops, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia, October 21–23, 2025, Revised Selected Papers (pp. 324-339). (Communications in Computer and Information Science; Vol. 2792 CCIS). Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-16851-1_23

Falcón-Mendoza, Alexandra ; Herrera-Perez, José ; Hernández-Ambato, Jorge et al. / Techno-Economic Analysis of Least-Cost Technology Solutions for Expanding Electricity Access in Ecuador. Advanced Research in Technologies, Information, Innovation and Sustainability - ARTIIS 2025, International Workshops, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia, October 21–23, 2025, Revised Selected Papers. editor / Teresa Guarda ; Filipe Portela ; Maria Fernanda Augusto. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2026. pp. 324-339 (Communications in Computer and Information Science).

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abstract = "Achieving universal access to electricity by 2030 remains a critical challenge in Ecuador, especially in remote and ecologically sensitive areas such as the Gal{\'a}pagos Islands and the Amazon region. This study applies the Open Source Spatial Electrification Toolkit (OnSSET) to develop geospatial least-cost electrification scenarios for Ecuador under 2030 and 2050 timeframes. By integrating national and global open-access datasets, the analysis simulates grid expansion, off-grid, and photovoltaic hybrid mini-grid (MG-PV) solutions to reach underserved populations. Results show that by 2030, grid densification remains the dominant strategy, accounting for over 85\% of new connections and requiring an investment of approximately USD 5.6 billion. However, decentralized hybrid systems, particularly MG-PV are essential for cost-effective electrification of isolated communities, serving more than 390,000 people. The 2050 scenario projects continued diversification, requiring over USD 65 billion in cumulative investments. This study demonstrates how open geospatial data and tools such as OnSSET can support evidence-based policymaking aligned with SDG 7 and Ecuador{\textquoteright}s national decarbonization agenda.",

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Falcón-Mendoza, A, Herrera-Perez, J, Hernández-Ambato, J, Ramos-Hidalgo, E & Herrera-Perez, V 2026, Techno-Economic Analysis of Least-Cost Technology Solutions for Expanding Electricity Access in Ecuador. in T Guarda, F Portela & MF Augusto (eds), Advanced Research in Technologies, Information, Innovation and Sustainability - ARTIIS 2025, International Workshops, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia, October 21–23, 2025, Revised Selected Papers. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol. 2792 CCIS, Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, pp. 324-339, Workshops of the International Conference on Advanced Research in Technologies, Information, Innovation and Sustainability, ARTIIS 2025, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia, 21/10/25. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-16851-1_23

Techno-Economic Analysis of Least-Cost Technology Solutions for Expanding Electricity Access in Ecuador. / Falcón-Mendoza, Alexandra; Herrera-Perez, José; Hernández-Ambato, Jorge et al.
Advanced Research in Technologies, Information, Innovation and Sustainability - ARTIIS 2025, International Workshops, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia, October 21–23, 2025, Revised Selected Papers. ed. / Teresa Guarda; Filipe Portela; Maria Fernanda Augusto. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2026. p. 324-339 (Communications in Computer and Information Science; Vol. 2792 CCIS).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

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AU - Herrera-Perez, Victor

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Falcón-Mendoza A, Herrera-Perez J, Hernández-Ambato J, Ramos-Hidalgo E, Herrera-Perez V. Techno-Economic Analysis of Least-Cost Technology Solutions for Expanding Electricity Access in Ecuador. In Guarda T, Portela F, Augusto MF, editors, Advanced Research in Technologies, Information, Innovation and Sustainability - ARTIIS 2025, International Workshops, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia, October 21–23, 2025, Revised Selected Papers. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. 2026. p. 324-339. (Communications in Computer and Information Science). doi: 10.1007/978-3-032-16851-1_23