Despite the increasing number of protected areas around the world and their importance in the conservation of species and ecosystems, protected areas management capacity remains difficult to evaluate. A standard is needed to help policy makers compare the goals with the results obtained. This empirical research builds a tool to analyze the management efficiency and predicts the new touristic outcomes in case of a policy change. Using as example the state parks agencies in the USA, this paper develops a technological frontier using data envelopment analysis based on the Protected Areas Management Approach. After that, a prediction of the outcomes is analyzed with a budget change for any state park agency. Data suggest that many of them need to improve their performance to be more efficient. Another result obtained shows how budget changes will affect each agency's performance in different degrees and, therefore, budget reductions should be modeled separately.