TY - JOUR
T1 - Impact of climate and land use/land cover changes on malaria incidence in the Ecuadorian Amazon
AU - Araujo Navas, Andrea L.
AU - Janko, Mark M.
AU - Benítez, Fátima L.
AU - Narvaez, Manuel
AU - Vasco, Luis E.
AU - Kansara, Prakrut
AU - Zaitchik, Benjamin
AU - Pan, William K.
AU - Mena, Carlos F.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 Araujo Navas et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
PY - 2024/5
Y1 - 2024/5
N2 - Malaria transmission is influenced by climate and land use/land cover change (LULC). This study examines the impact of climate and LULC on malaria risk in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Weekly malaria surveillance data between 2008 and 2019 from Ecuador’s Ministry of Public Health were combined with hydrometeorological and LULC data. Cross-correlation analyses identified time lags. Bayesian spatiotemporal models estimated annual LULC rates of change (ARC) by census area and assessed the effects on Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum incidence. ARC for the five land cover classes (forest, agriculture, urban, shrub vegetation, water) ranged from -1 to 4% with agriculture increasing across areas. Forest and shrub vegetation ARC were significantly associated with both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. Temperature and terrestrial water content showed consistent negative relationships with both species. Precipitation had varying effects on Plasmodium vivax (null) and Plasmodium falciparum (increase) incidence. Shrubs and forest expansion, increased temperature, and terrestrial water content reduced malaria incidence, while increased precipitation had varying effects. Relationships between malaria, LULC, and climate are complex, influencing risk profiles. These findings aid decision-making and guide further research in the region.
AB - Malaria transmission is influenced by climate and land use/land cover change (LULC). This study examines the impact of climate and LULC on malaria risk in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Weekly malaria surveillance data between 2008 and 2019 from Ecuador’s Ministry of Public Health were combined with hydrometeorological and LULC data. Cross-correlation analyses identified time lags. Bayesian spatiotemporal models estimated annual LULC rates of change (ARC) by census area and assessed the effects on Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum incidence. ARC for the five land cover classes (forest, agriculture, urban, shrub vegetation, water) ranged from -1 to 4% with agriculture increasing across areas. Forest and shrub vegetation ARC were significantly associated with both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. Temperature and terrestrial water content showed consistent negative relationships with both species. Precipitation had varying effects on Plasmodium vivax (null) and Plasmodium falciparum (increase) incidence. Shrubs and forest expansion, increased temperature, and terrestrial water content reduced malaria incidence, while increased precipitation had varying effects. Relationships between malaria, LULC, and climate are complex, influencing risk profiles. These findings aid decision-making and guide further research in the region.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85214648965&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000315
DO - 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000315
M3 - Artículo
AN - SCOPUS:85214648965
SN - 2767-3200
VL - 3
JO - PLOS Climate
JF - PLOS Climate
IS - 5
M1 - e0000315
ER -
