Multi-hazard selection framework for assessing climate change impacts on reinforced concrete structures

Climate change significantly affects the performance and durability of infrastructure by intensifying natural hazards and accelerating material degradation. Although notable progress has been made in understanding the impacts of climate change on hazards and deterioration mechanisms, systematic frameworks that connect these processes at the asset level, particularly under non-stationary climatic conditions, remain limited. This paper proposes a framework that integrates structural condition assessments, environmental data, geographical context, and climate projections to support the identification and priorization of natural hazards and deterioration mechanisms under evolving climate conditions. The framework incorporates non-stationary climate data, probabilistic and stochastic approaches, and aligns with the latest IPCC reports to ensure up-to-date and relevant guidance. A case study on the Tambura Bridge in Ecuador illustrates its practical application and demonstrates how the framework helps distinguish between regionally prominent hazards (e.g., flooding) and those most critical for specific assets. Based on this selection, carbonation-induced corrosion was identified as a governing deterioration mechanism and further evaluated to quantify its impact under future climate conditions. Overall, the proposed framework provides a systematic and adaptable tool for prioritising multi-hazard scenarios, supporting more informed planning and evaluation for climate-adaptive infrastructure management.