Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence

Moritz U.G. Kraemer, Verity Hill, Christopher Ruis, Simon Dellicour, Sumali Bajaj, John T. McCrone, Guy Baele, Kris V. Parag, Anya Lindström Battle, Bernardo Gutierrez, Ben Jackson, Rachel Colquhoun, Áine O'Toole, Brennan Klein, Alessandro Vespignani, Erik Volz, Nuno R. Faria, David M. Aanensen, Nicholas J. Loman, Louis Du PlessisSimon Cauchemez, Andrew Rambaut, Samuel V. Scarpino, Oliver G. Pybus

Producción científica: Contribución a una revistaArtículorevisión exhaustiva

89 Citas (Scopus)

Resumen

Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve because they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigated the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based polymerase chain reaction data. We identified a multistage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7's increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explored how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by nonpharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates.

Idioma originalInglés
Páginas (desde-hasta)889-895
Número de páginas7
PublicaciónScience
Volumen373
N.º6557
DOI
EstadoPublicada - 20 ago. 2021
Publicado de forma externa

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